Carnegie Moscow Center
Everyone actually knows the result of Azerbaijan’s presidential election—that President Ilham Aliyev will be elected for a third term. But today’s vote is most important as a test on the state of the country’s opposition.
The result of Azerbaijan’s upcoming presidential election is not in doubt. But the incumbent president will face a new set of challenges during his next five-year term.
The predictability of the election outcomes contrasts with unpredictability of Georgia’s further development.
Azerbaijan’s opposition has united around a set of democratic ideals and is making the most of the limited opportunities for campaigning. Will they be able to overcome the apathy of the voters who have never seen a fair election?
A special arrangement may be devised for the Eastern Partnership countries so that they can associate with both Russia and the EU. It would effectively serve to form a loose economic alliance between the EU and the Eurasian Union tied together by the common denominator: the Eastern Partnership nations.
The October elections in Azerbaijan and Georgia seem to mean different things for those two countries. In Azerbaijan, there is a continuity of Aliev rule that is moving toward sultanism. In Georgia, one could observe the end of one epoch and the beginning of another.
Azerbaijan, like all of Syria’s regional neighbors, is affected by the ongoing civil war there.
The administration of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan embraced a Russian takeover of the nation’s economy that left political control in Armenian hands. As Sargsyan began to have second thoughts about this bargain, he found himself short of options.
While the world waits for a Fourth Wave of Democracy, it is witnessing a diametrically different phenomenon: a surge of new authoritarianism.
Following Putin’s re-election, Russia faces two more key junctures that could shape the country’s future. The Kremlin will have to deal with limited revenues and it faces another election cycle in 2016-18.