Carnegie Moscow Center
Putin has returned to the Kremlin, but he faces a significantly different Russia, because the country's situation has changed drastically. The previous Putin’s consensus between those in power and society has fallen apart.
Putin's return to power reveals Medvedev's supposedly reformist presidency for the farce it really was. Medvedev's legacy in one sentence: He enabled Putin's personalized rule to continue unabated.
Western governments have the opportunity to demonstrate to the Russian elite that its ability to prosper in the West depends on its behavior inside Russia itself.
It is not enough to urge Vladimir Putin to leave office. The Russian opposition must also seek the elimination of the autocratic model of power that Putin represents, and push for real constitutional political reform.
Without major political and social changes, Russia risks complete disintegration. Transforming Russia requires eliminating personalized power, the merger of state and business, and the country's imperial ambitions.
Putin’s regime cannot maintain power within a liberal political atmosphere. In order to maintain control, the regime is likely to tighten its grip on power and reducing freedoms.
Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin seem to have staked their futures on Putin’s victory in the first round of the presidential elections and are working to remove any possible opponents who might be able to appeal to Putin’s electoral base.
Vladimir Putin’s article in the Izvestia daily demonstrates both his anxiety over the recent protests and his inability to recognize how significantly Russian society is changing.
As popular pressure builds in Russia against the political status quo, it is increasingly clear that if the current opportunity to bring the authorities to a real dialogue is lost, Russia may have to wait another generation before another opportunity arises.
As Vladimir Putin and United Russia struggle to retain power, they are facing a new post-Soviet generation that grew up without a deeply ingrained fear of the Kremlin’s power. A confrontation between the ruling authorities and the people may be unavoidable.