Carnegie Moscow Center
With anxieties over the nuclear activities of North Korea and Iran looming large, heads of state from 53 countries convened in Seoul this week to reaffirm and intensify their commitment to prevent nuclear materials from getting into the hands of terrorists.
Russia has entered a new period in its political history and protests are likely to continue long after the election results are in.
Moscow believes that stringent international sanctions against Iran will not put an end to the Iranian nuclear program or turn the Iranian people against their government and will also fail to stave off an Israeli airstrike.
The Arab League's observer missions in Syria are unlikely to succeed, but they will continue for the rest of the year as external military intervention is highly unlikely
The cumulative impact of the nuclear developments that occurred in 2012, from the disaster in Fukushima to Iran's continuing nuclear program, will make the world's nuclear future more uncertain.
After a year that included the Arab Awakening, the euro crisis, Japan’s nuclear catastrophe, the killing of Osama bin Laden, and the unanticipated reaction to Russia’s recent parliamentary elections, there are many unanswered questions left for 2012.
In the coming months, Washington will need to walk a fine line to maintain pressure on Iran while trying to prevent the nuclear crisis from escalating out of control.
With the release of a new IAEA report on Iran, leaders of the world’s countries should examine the consequences of two possibilities: a war between Iran and the United States, or Iran turning into a small nuclear power. An alternative in which Tehran stops at the nuclear threshold seems less realistic at the moment.
Russia’s immediate reaction to the International Atomic Energy Agency's report on Iran indicates its reluctance to give in to further pressure on Tehran from the West, as the Kremlin reiterated its policy of finding a diplomatic resolution to the impasse.
While new allegations call the peaceful intentions of Iran’s nuclear program into greater question, China and Russia are unlikely to agree to sanctions they view as crippling.