Carnegie Moscow Center
The situation in Ukraine is very unstable and dangerous, and Moscow's support of the delayed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and non-recognition of the new authorities in Kyiv only adds to the tension.
Russia and the EU are trying to pull Ukraine into their orbit rather than cooperating on what would be best for the country.
Moscow needs to play its hands wisely and avoid supporting the separatist movement in Ukraine, which could give Kyiv a pretext to send in troops to restore constitutional order.
Only the first stage of revolution in Ukraine is over. The serious challenge for Ukraine is how the common people will be involved in controlling the new power.
The defeat of the Ukrainian regime was a severe blow to Vladimir Putin personally. Any victory of Ukrainian revolution could act as an inspiration for the Russian people as well.
The protests in Ukraine are a warning to all post-Soviet authoritarian states that the same thing may occur at any time in their countries and are likely to serve as a pretext for the authorities in Russia and in Central Asia to tighten their control.
Neither the opposition leaders nor President Yanukovych know how how hard they can push back as they struggle to find a solution to rising tensions in Ukraine.
Putin’s Eurasian Union would be a set of political and economic structures, similar to the EU, that Russia would dominate. But this vision comes with a price; Ukraine’s economy is in trouble, just as Russia is suffering from low economic growth.
Despite President Obama’s upcoming participation in the Russia-U.S. summit in St. Petersburg, much of the American foreign policy community remains at odds over U.S. policy towards Moscow.