The growth of the Chinese economy has been remarkable, but it was largely sustained by a phenomenal inflow of foreign capital and forced construction of infrastructure. Now fossilized in state capitalism, China may forfeit a mechanism for autonomous growth.
Russia may face a danger of becoming a “super Finland,” neutralized and marginalized between the NATO and China. To avoid this, Russia can strengthen its ties with the East-Asian countries.
The intensification of the Sino-Japanese standoff in the East China Sea calls for better communication between the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and the Pentagon.
As Russia and Japan are carefully embarking on a fresh attempt to fully normalize their relations, closer and more regular contacts in the foreign and security field, including military exercises, may be useful as confidence-building.
“National identity” and “nationalism”—there is nothing permanent about them. They vary, depending upon who speaks about them, and they change as time goes by. Those who resort to ultra-nationalism now in Russia had better hurry, because the nation states are losing efficacy, and values transform as economy and society change.
The simple axiom is: as far as you have a sufficient economic growth, you can be generous to the immigrants, but if the economy goes wrong, you should limit the inflow of foreign workers. The Russian economy is now ill, with a growth rate at slightly above one percent. And the more frustrated the Russians become, the more acute the ethnic problem becomes.
