Ukraine may be heading not toward federalization or decentralization, but feudalization. To avoid this, the focus should not only be on central, macro-level reforms but also on building civil society to make those larger reforms sustainable.
In the new ideological cleavage that has opened up between Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Western countries, one idea divides them like no other: the meaning of regime change.
The financial troubles of the ruble represent the most striking and dangerous strategic challenge facing the Russian state since the conflict in Ukraine began.
In Donbas, there is mostly a tactical operation aimed at reinforcing rebel positions, not preparation for a full-fledged war. The West may not have a better solution than to accept to freeze Donbas for the winter.
Over the next few years, the European Union will have to revamp its neighborhood policies completely. The ambition is not only to prevent state failure, but to help build functional political systems that can strive economically, provide essential services, guard individual freedoms, and maintain social peace.
The Ukrainian government retains the prerogative to exclude violators of public trust from further government service while new political and economic institutions are built. It remains to be seen how lustration and anti-corruption laws will be implemented.
Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Ukraine have made it clear that Ukraine’s political life is quite diverse, and voters are not partial to “united” solutions. A lower turnout also suggests that Ukrainians are increasingly tired of their politics.
The Ukrainian crisis has shown to the South Caucasian states that deciding between European and Eurasian integration comes at a high price, but that indecisiveness is an even worse path.
With less than a week left until the Ukrainian parliamentary elections, there is growing uncertainty about whether the new parliament will provide a boost to President Petro Poroshenko's flagging reform agenda and attempts to manage the extremely fragile situation in the east.
