The United States seems intent to force Russia into capitulation over Ukraine, a situation caused by a poor understanding of economics on the part of Putin’s advisers. While low intensity battle will likely linger on, Russia remains in a more maneuverable position to offer a deal to the United States.
Going to war in 1914 was suicidal for the Russian state. Today, a Russian military invasion of Ukraine might well lead to a catastrophe with dire consequences for Russia itself, or to an all-out conflict between Russia and NATO.
During the Cold War, both Washington and Moscow actively encouraged, financed, and supported proxy wars across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In the eyes of many influential figures in Moscow, that is precisely what is happening in Ukraine today.
The Kremlin now sees the U.S. goal as the toppling of the Putin regime. That said, expecting Putin to back off betrays a lack of understanding of the gravity of the situation. It is no longer just a struggle for Ukraine, but a battle for Russia.
The leaders of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Alexander Borodai and Igor Strelkov, are both Russian citizens who worked for the intelligence services, fought in Chechnya, spent time in Transnistria and worked for the ultra-nationalist newspaper, Zavtra. Putin must know that they have become a toxic liability.
Ukraine’s position as an important transport corridor for Russian gas has resulted in various periods of conflict between Ukraine and Russian-state owned gas companies. But, even though both recognize they will not reach a long-term agreement quickly, one can easily see that the number of disagreements between them is not great. Both realize the need to compromise.
MH17 may well be a turning point in the Ukraine conflict, but President Putin remains unlikely to back down despite economic pressure from the West. Russians may look back to the summer of 2014 years from now as a game changer.
The downing of the Malaysia Airlines MH17 plane over Eastern Ukraine catapults the crisis there onto the global plane. The tragic and sudden loss of so many innocent lives should put a final point to the armed conflict—or it may put the international conflict over Ukraine on a much higher and more dangerous level.
Ukraine is certainly a different country compared to seven months ago. The challenges of implementing the EU Association Agreement that it signed on June 27 are still tremendous, though. Reform, management of expectations, and reality is what is needed now.
It seems the Kremlin is making a U-turn in its Ukraine policy. Although it appears that Putin has acquired a legitimate partner in Poroshenko with whom he can reach agreements, both must walk a very fine line given their respective domestic political situations. Ultimately, the ball is in Putin’s court.
