If Vladimir Putin has a new doctrine of intervention, Moldova is vulnerable. But thus far both Chisinau and Transnistria have been quiet, while the crisis rages next door.
It is not clear whether “protection of compatriots” is a new foreign-policy goal Putin intends to apply elsewhere—or whether he is just using any weapon he can to undermine the new authorities in Kyiv. In any case, playing the “compatriot card” is a dangerous game.
Ukraine became the place where the open crisis of the post-Soviet model occurred. This means that the country may become only the first stage in the chain of future collapses. Also, with Russian invasion in Ukraine the entire international system that came into being after 1991 is starting to crumble.
The Kremlin’s intervention in Crimea and direct involvement in the destabilization of the southeast of Ukraine exemplifies Putin’s Doctrine. This concept is based on the premise that Russia can only exist as the center of the galaxy surrounded by the satellite-statelets.
The possibility of a Russian military operation in Ukraine that is not limited to Crimea is real. Russia and the West are on the verge a confrontation far worse than over Georgia in 2008.
The collapse of the Yanukovych regime in Ukraine became another posthumous chapter in the breakup of the Soviet Union. It will severely curtail Russia’s leadership ambitions in the post-Soviet space.
Although Russia has failed to get at the Winter Olympics the one prize it particularly coveted, the ice hockey title, it managed to win a far more important victory—in ensuring that the Games, the athletes, and spectators were safe. However, making Russia safer remains a challenge.
Ukraine’s “February revolution” is sometimes described as a major blow to Russia and to President Vladimir Putin, personally. In fact, it may be a blessing in disguise for both.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s article on Ukraine demonstrates that the Russian regime is simultaneously making conflicting statements and moving in opposite directions.
