Carnegie Moscow Center
Vladimir Putin’s policy is to do what he sees right, regardless of what others think about it. He is ready for sanctions and to accept the costs.
It seems unlikely that Russian armed forces will move beyond the Crimean peninsula. The softer and more conciliatory tone taken by Putin could be a result of the determination of the United States and Europe to take action against Russia.
The situation in Ukraine is very unstable and dangerous, and Moscow's support of the delayed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and non-recognition of the new authorities in Kyiv only adds to the tension.
Russia and the EU are trying to pull Ukraine into their orbit rather than cooperating on what would be best for the country.
The influx of labor migrants is an economic necessity for Russia, which does not have enough native workforce. But the newness of this migration, coupled with a social distrust of authority, is causing problems.
The main reason that Russia’s anti-gay laws have stirred up such strong emotions is the lack of open social discussion about the issue.
The protests in Russia cannot be called a political phenomenon, as the participants are experienced in civic activism but not in political life.
A verdict of acquittal or not guilty for Pussy Riot is unlikely because the verdict for this politically sensitive trial will be reached outside the courtroom.
It is unlikely that the members of Pussy Riot punk band will be found not guilty, because to recognize that they were not guilty would require acknowledging that the trial itself was a sham.
The outrage over the mismanagement of the flood in Krymsk will contribute to the waning of Vladimir Putin’s popularity, but this process is slow-going.