Carnegie Moscow Center
The world is getting used to the Ukrainian conflict and the confrontation between Russia and the West. If Moscow and the Western countries start to consider this state of affairs the new norm, the consequences may be quite unappealing.
The Sochi meeting between Russia’s, Armenia’s, and Azerbaijan’s presidents is but one episode in the series of Russia’s protracted peacemaking efforts. Rather, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict serves as a great pretext for Russia’s presence in the South Caucasus.
The coup d’état in Abkhazia attracted virtually no media attention in Russia, and even less attention was paid to the parliamentary election in South Ossetia. It seems that after almost six years of Abkhazian and South Ossetian “independence,” these territories stopped being Russia’s headache, only to be replaced by Crimea.
Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia signed a treaty on the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) on May 29. While Russia mainly hopes to increase its political clout, all three presidents realize how many difficulties they will have to overcome.
Russia should not treat the post-2014 situation in Afghanistan as a potential disaster for its security in the south. Nevertheless, the coalition withdrawal from Afghanistan will force Russia to take more responsibility for regional security.
The June 3 Syrian vote is unlikely to radically change or improve the situation in the country. Rather, Bashar al-Assad’s re-election may only worsen it.
The most probable Egyptian president Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi is actively exploiting Nasser’s legacy to establish his leadership. But whether he will be able to develop into a full-fledged national leader will become clear in the next few months.
The crisis in Ukraine may lead to unpredictable consequences inside Russia—from another perestroika to complete collapse.
The Afghan presidential elections did take place. The traditional and arch-conservative Afghan society is gradually getting used to regular democratic political instruments, although the situation in Afghanistan remains unpredictable, and the national consensus is far out of reach.
Kazakhstan’s new Prime Minister, Karim Massimov, is “the president’s most trusted man.” If his term lasts long enough, he may become a sort of political double for President Nursultan Nazarbayev.