Carnegie Moscow Center
While NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan could have dangerous implications for the region, some measure of instability might benefit Russia, which could use it as evidence of the importance of Russia’s military and political presence in the Central Asia.
The agreement on Syria between Russia and the United States turned out to be insufficient. A broader compromise is required to resolve the crisis, particularly between the warring sides in Syria.
Russia does not have and will probably never have a specific event that can become a symbol of national consolidation. Still, something specific that consolidates everyone at once is necessary and the Kremlin wants people to nationally unite against the external enemies.
Though it is far more convenient to simply consider the last pogrom in Biryulyovo, Moscow, a sad occurrence and continue acting ad hoc, as usual, the authorities must take a strategic look at these events and act energetically, consistently, and, above all, intelligently.
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 equates with an unquestionable strengthening of the Taliban movement or even with its actual coming to power. The external actors will have to adjust to the new situation and the future Afghan coalition leadership which will include the Taliban.
The predictability of the election outcomes contrasts with unpredictability of Georgia’s further development.
The improvement in the U.S.-Iran relations was quite expected after Hassan Rowhani came to power. The main question today is that of mutual confidence and the genuineness of the intentions of the new Iranian president.
The tenth-anniversary Valdai Club meeting was named “Russia’s diversity for the Modern World.” Nevertheless, the issue of diversity was put to the side by other hot current issues: the recent Russian elections, corruption, and Syria.
Beijing is emerging as the big winner in Central Asia, displacing Washington and Moscow while ensuring that engagement with countries in the region takes place on its terms.
As the U.S. troop withdrawal approaches, Washington should consider how improving U.S.-Iranian relations can further its long-term goals in Afghanistan and the region.