Carnegie Moscow Center
In Crimea, Putin will face the financial burden which the annexation will incur. Crimea’s case may seem to be manageable at first, but the expenditure will absorb all money and Russia’s already dwindling investment will be brought to nil.
Ukrainian oligarchs face a very real threat of seeing parts of their business empires disrupted by a political crisis over which they have no control.
The West’s sanctions will be damaging to Russia and its people. However, standing up to Western pressure is likely to become the main feature of a newborn Russian patriotism and the central element of national consolidation.
Russian troops in Crimea are necessary not simply to protect it from a possible invasion by the Ukrainian army, but rather to incorporate Crimea into Russia’s financial infrastructure as soon as possible.
The EU is resolutely engaging with the CIS states trying to tie them closer to the Union and create a European sphere of influence. However, in Central Asia it failed to leave its political footprint and make a difference on the ground.
With signs of a stabler political climate and growing investments in Georgia facilitated by two big funds, it’s not out of the question that 2014 could see the return of the “Caucasian tiger.”
The compromise between Yanukovych and the leaders of the opposition is a long-overdue step back from a disaster, but much remains unclear. Ukraine will face a set of grim prospects, the worst of which is that the country is running out of money.
Pakistan is not an important Russian trading partner in South Asia. However, with Eurasian integration involving Central Asia and traditional Russian-Indian economic ties revived, there is no sense for Pakistan to remain in a limbo.
The Eurasian Economic Union had start negotiations with the EU on specific ways to liberalize mutual economic transactions without compromising its statehood. The forthcoming EU-Russia Summit is an opportune venue to launch such an idea.
Europeanization must mean that Georgia becomes an attractive market in terms of human and infrastructural resources, a country which is a reliable contract guarantor and, thereby, a hub and a model for the region as a whole.