Carnegie Moscow Center
Russia’s unconfirmed intention to buy Iranian oil throws a monkey wrench in the sensitive mechanism of negotiating a gradual easing of the regime of economic sanctions against Tehran.
Every country in Eurasia has to dance with the United States, politically, economically, militarily, and culturally. A recovery of the U.S. economy would mean that friendly relations with it will pay off and that an unnecessary confrontation will not.
Despite the diplomatic victories of Vladimir Putin, the economic stagnation in Russia is a far deeper and long-term factor.
The growth of the Chinese economy has been remarkable, but it was largely sustained by a phenomenal inflow of foreign capital and forced construction of infrastructure. Now fossilized in state capitalism, China may forfeit a mechanism for autonomous growth.
Regarding finances, the Russian government has used three methods to keep the Ukrainians from signing the Association Agreement with the EU: bullying, bribery, and defending Russian national interests.
The situation in Asia-Pacific will not allow an easy establishment of a solid international security arrangement.
Now Tbilisi should concentrate on the main issue that preoccupies most Georgians: how to get the economy back on track.
The simple axiom is: as far as you have a sufficient economic growth, you can be generous to the immigrants, but if the economy goes wrong, you should limit the inflow of foreign workers. The Russian economy is now ill, with a growth rate at slightly above one percent. And the more frustrated the Russians become, the more acute the ethnic problem becomes.
The Chinese-Russian energy alliance is a product of growing bilateral relations, but it also reflects developments in the global energy market and in non-energy geopolitics.
Beijing is emerging as the big winner in Central Asia, displacing Washington and Moscow while ensuring that engagement with countries in the region takes place on its terms.