Carnegie Moscow Center
Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon faces a number of complex tasks, which make maintaining a high degree of stability increasingly difficult.
The Ukraine crisis has opened up a period of intense geopolitical competition, rivalry, and even confrontation between Russia and the West. The area of competition is again Eastern Europe; only this time, further to the east of its Cold War namesake.
Russia should not treat the post-2014 situation in Afghanistan as a potential disaster for its security in the south. Nevertheless, the coalition withdrawal from Afghanistan will force Russia to take more responsibility for regional security.
The June 3 Syrian vote is unlikely to radically change or improve the situation in the country. Rather, Bashar al-Assad’s re-election may only worsen it.
The Indian landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party and Narendra Modi may lead to a strengthening of the strategic partnership between India and Russia.
Threats from South Asia challenge Russia’s security. Moscow needs a new approach to the region that prioritizes better relations with Islamabad.
The most probable Egyptian president Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi is actively exploiting Nasser’s legacy to establish his leadership. But whether he will be able to develop into a full-fledged national leader will become clear in the next few months.
Erdogan’s statement of condolences to the descendants of Armenians murdered by the Ottomans can let Turks feel freer and more comfortable to take a more critical look at their history, as well as reduce the tension between Turkey and Armenia.
The Afghan presidential elections did take place. The traditional and arch-conservative Afghan society is gradually getting used to regular democratic political instruments, although the situation in Afghanistan remains unpredictable, and the national consensus is far out of reach.
In Central Asia, the European Union has moved away from promoting and establishing democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, and has shifted its focus toward security questions.