Carnegie Moscow Center
Russia is learning to live in a new harsh environment of U.S.-led economic sanctions and political confrontation with the United States.
The Kremlin now sees the U.S. goal as the toppling of the Putin regime. That said, expecting Putin to back off betrays a lack of understanding of the gravity of the situation. It is no longer just a struggle for Ukraine, but a battle for Russia.
The MH17 crisis within the larger Ukraine crisis is likely to lead to the politicization of the conflict.
If the investigators’ verdict on the Malaysia Airlines plane crash does eventually fall against Russia, Vladimir Putin will survive politically, but will have to work hard to restore faith in him, and his good fortune.
With the international investigation of the Malaysian plane crash yet to begin in earnest, the West will base its understanding on evidence supplied mainly by the United States and Russia will see Western actions as punishment not for shooting down the plane, but rather for Moscow’s position on Ukraine.
MH17 may well be a turning point in the Ukraine conflict, but President Putin remains unlikely to back down despite economic pressure from the West. Russians may look back to the summer of 2014 years from now as a game changer.
An independent inquiry into the Malaysia Airlines plane crash over eastern Ukraine and an immediate ceasefire by all sides could be the first step in a process to reverse the trend toward mutual destruction within Ukraine and beyond.
The downing of the Malaysia Airlines MH17 plane over Eastern Ukraine catapults the crisis there onto the global plane. The tragic and sudden loss of so many innocent lives should put a final point to the armed conflict—or it may put the international conflict over Ukraine on a much higher and more dangerous level.
The fundamental dilemma of Moscow’s policy lies in whether it is worth cooperating to achieve a comprehensive agreement with Iran, which would primarily be a success for the United States, under conditions of confrontation with the West over Ukraine.
The problems arising across the globe from militant radical Islam cannot be dealt with at a later date. Russia and the West have vital mutual interests, since they share this common enemy. Given the extent of its involvement, Russia should take the initiative.