Carnegie Moscow Center
The May 25 presidential vote has marked the end of the first phase of the Ukraine crisis, which will continue to reshape the global strategic landscape. For Russia important result of the crisis is pivot to Asia.
Russia should not treat the post-2014 situation in Afghanistan as a potential disaster for its security in the south. Nevertheless, the coalition withdrawal from Afghanistan will force Russia to take more responsibility for regional security.
The June 3 Syrian vote is unlikely to radically change or improve the situation in the country. Rather, Bashar al-Assad’s re-election may only worsen it.
Today, the Russia-U.S. security relationship has both areas which will not likely see advances and opportunities for progress.
Vladimir Putin’s first visit outside the former Soviet Union since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis is to China. The vector of Russian foreign policy has changed dramatically, and Russia has been seeking ways to strengthen ties with leading non-Western powers.
Germany is Europe’s sole emerging power, and potentially a power in Eurasia, and Ukraine is a good place to start working toward its new role. For starters, Germany needs to stop thinking of Ukraine as a U.S.-Russian issue, and assume responsibility there on behalf of the EU as a whole.
Since the 1990s, warnings from Russian liberals that Western pressure would push Russia toward China have failed to materialize. Now, however, faced with U.S.-led geopolitical pressure in Eastern Europe and East Asia, Russia and China are likely to cooperate more closely.
Sanctioning Russia’s oil remains on the table, but playing this card comes with serious economic risk for all.
After the end of the political protests of 2011–2012, Russia has found itself in a troubled break between two eras. This is a time of conservatism, which, in its Russian incarnation, has morphed into a gloomy, almost medieval archaism.
Putin not only seeks to revisit the results of the end of the Cold War, he also wants a final say in establishing the new world order and Western consent to his interpretation of the rules of the game.