Carnegie Moscow Center
To escape the analogy of a revolution, Vladimir Putin must rise above the rapacious elite, and to avoid being overthrown, he must replace it.
For the Russian economic and political system, as well as for the country’s foreign relations, the current economic crisis is an existential one. Russia will exit from it in a very different form from what it is today.
Eurasia Outlook asked its experts to reflect on the dramatic events of 2014 and to share their predictions for Russia's future and for its role on the global stage going forward.
Eurasia Outlook asked several experts what, if anything, can be done by Russian policymakers in order to weather the perfect storm descending on the country’s economy.
The crisis presents Putin with an opportunity to tighten his grip on business, to see who is loyal and who is not, to pick winners and losers, to decide who will receive state support and whose assets should be “redistributed”.
The falling oil price and rapid devaluation of Russian currency not only affect the economy, the budget, and the joking habits of the elite, but also have an effect on Moscow’s foreign policy.
In reduced economic circumstances the big test for Russia is whether it will be forced to retrench, or whether Vladimir Putin will take his chances on expansionist foreign policy at a moment when there’s less money to go around to combat legitimate threats.
The financial troubles of the ruble represent the most striking and dangerous strategic challenge facing the Russian state since the conflict in Ukraine began.
The crisis in Ukraine has betrayed fault lines in the Visegrad Group. Unless Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic change course, the “golden age” of Central Europe may come to an end.
Facing Western sanctions, some Russian pundits are rushing to find an easy way out through increased cooperation with Asia. However, nothing can replace the West for Russia.