Carnegie Moscow Center
The situation in Dagestan is chronically tense, and many analysts think that the civil war there continues. The conflict is accompanied by social Islamicization, as well as the growing influence of radical Islam and Salafi movements.
Europeanization must mean that Georgia becomes an attractive market in terms of human and infrastructural resources, a country which is a reliable contract guarantor and, thereby, a hub and a model for the region as a whole.
To paraphrase Tolstoy, “All democracies are alike, all non-democratic regimes are unhappy in their own way.” This is what should be borne in mind, looking ahead into 2014 in the Caucasus region.
The war the terrorists are waging against Russia is for real, and their threats are not empty. Sochi is probably highest on the terrorists’ hit list, and Moscow is another prime target. However, for the time being, the terrorists have focused on some of the softer targets in the south of Russia.
By pretty much any historical standards, the wider Europe at the dawn of 2014 is incredibly peaceful. However, peace in Europe should be a signal not for Panglossian optimism but for redoubled Europeans to be vigilant against the risk of new conflicts, large and small.
From Tbilisi’s perspective, deeper integration with the EU is a policy trajectory that enjoys consensual support, in a political landscape that is otherwise not prone to consensus politics. Now, the post-Vilnius challenge is to retain this legitimacy and continue to develop qualitative anchorage.
The Armenians can use Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s visit to vent some of their frustrations with Turkey—and then get back to talking again.
While Georgia is a much better place than it was ten years ago, in large part due to Saakashvili, too much during his rule was focused more on the surface than on the reality.
The new Georgian government’s proposed legislation would dramatically decentralize power exercised by the center. Should this bill pass in a meaningful form, Georgian democracy and economic development might seriously benefit.
As Georgia enters a key period in its modern history, the previous larger-than-life leaders are leaving office and two relatively inexperienced politicians are taking the reins.