Carnegie Moscow Center
Though Sochi is located in the Caucasus, the planners of the Sochi Olympics failed to give the games any Caucasian flavor. It looks as though the North Caucasians have been factored into the planning of the games only in so far as they present a security headache.
The terrorist threat to the Sochi Olympics may come from individuals who do not belong to organized and at least somewhat known terrorist groups.
The Sochi Olympics could become the pretext for a real rapprochement between Moscow and Tbilisi. However, conversation between Russia and Georgia about the insurgency in the North Caucasus never started, and in the future this will be remembered as a missed opportunity.
It has been clear from the beginning that the Sochi Olympics would be a likely target for the terrorists. The contest between the terrorists and the forces of the Russian state is one contest that Russia absolutely must win.
If Russia were able to overcome its defensive rhetoric and come up with its own version of “a good neighborhood policy,” Georgia would of course benefit; perhaps more significantly, Russia itself would benefit.
Philippe Lefort is stepping down as the EU’s special representative for the South Caucasus. Now a new representative will have to start again from zero in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the worry is that in the meantime the Caucasus conflicts will slip down the EU agenda.
The Sochi Olympics are more politicized than any other Games in recent history. A number of world leaders have announced that they would not attend the Games. However, the Kremlin uses foreign criticism as proof of the West's perennial desire to hold Russia back, and keep it weak.
Russia is demanding to be treated as an equal partner in its relationship with the EU, but Brussels had long ignored this shift, and EU-Russian relations have stagnated as a result. It is time for a fundamental rethink of the EU’s Russia policy.
Probably for the first time in the history of the Olympics, sports-related issues concerning the Games took a back seat to the issues of security. Keeping the Sochi Olympics safe is a matter of Russia’s political prestige, as well as the evidence of its ability to respond to terrorism.
In the last few months the almost moribund peace process over Nagorny Karabakh has got back on its feet. This isn’t a resumption of full negotiations, but it is a start.