Carnegie Moscow Center
The dramatic developments in Geneva last week demonstrate that the Iranian nuclear issue can be resolved. The details of the future accord are very important, and they may become sticking points for international diplomacy.
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 equates with an unquestionable strengthening of the Taliban movement or even with its actual coming to power. The external actors will have to adjust to the new situation and the future Afghan coalition leadership which will include the Taliban.
The emerging rapprochement between Washington and Tehran creates a potential opportunity for Russia’s Vladimir Putin to boost his country’s international standing.
The improvement in the U.S.-Iran relations was quite expected after Hassan Rowhani came to power. The main question today is that of mutual confidence and the genuineness of the intentions of the new Iranian president.
Obama needs to follow up on the Syrian disarmament plan and be ready to augment it by a serious effort at a political settlement in Syria within the Geneva framework. If there is to be a solution on Syria, Iran should be part of it. Engaging the Iranians on Syria would be a confidence building measure which would also help in the nuclear talks.
The euro crisis is not the only foreign policy challenge facing the new government in Berlin. Will Germany now realize its potential and develop a foreign policy worthy of the name?
If the joint efforts of the United States and Russia in Syria are to succeed, they must attain a ceasefire between Bashar al-Assad’s armed forces and the opposition, and discover and destroy all chemical weapons in Syria.
As current events demonstrate, the security challenges of the Middle East cannot be permanently solved solely through the use of American military power. On Iran and other regional challenges, the only lasting solutions will be diplomatic ones.
Washington should endorse the Russian proposal and invest President Vladimir Putin’s prestige in winning Syria’s assent and full, timely implementation. Such an outcome would be better than military action and better than no action.
Dmitri Trenin participated in a live Twitter Q&A on the situation in Syria, the G20 summit, and the U.S.-Russia relations.