Carnegie Moscow Center
The Arab League's observer missions in Syria are unlikely to succeed, but they will continue for the rest of the year as external military intervention is highly unlikely
The European Union’s embargo on Iranian oil supplies is unlikely to be effective in forcing Iran to restart negotiations on its on-going nuclear program.
While Iran has the right to develop nuclear energy, the international community has reason to worry that Iran’s nuclear program is developing technologies that would enable Tehran to build nuclear weapons.
Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, department supervisor at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, was killed in a car bomb explosion in Tehran that Iranian officials have already accused both the United States and Israel in playing a part in.
The cumulative impact of the nuclear developments that occurred in 2012, from the disaster in Fukushima to Iran's continuing nuclear program, will make the world's nuclear future more uncertain.
The chilling of the Arab Spring, Iran's nuclear program, Iraq after the U.S withdrawal, and the continuing European financial crisis are just some of the key issues facing the international community in 2012.
After a year that included the Arab Awakening, the euro crisis, Japan’s nuclear catastrophe, the killing of Osama bin Laden, and the unanticipated reaction to Russia’s recent parliamentary elections, there are many unanswered questions left for 2012.
In the coming months, Washington will need to walk a fine line to maintain pressure on Iran while trying to prevent the nuclear crisis from escalating out of control.
The situation in Syria is unlikely to improve in the near future. It is increasingly likely that the violent domestic unrest can only be resolved through a regime change.
With the release of a new IAEA report on Iran, leaders of the world’s countries should examine the consequences of two possibilities: a war between Iran and the United States, or Iran turning into a small nuclear power. An alternative in which Tehran stops at the nuclear threshold seems less realistic at the moment.