Carnegie Moscow Center
The new Minsk agreement will not necessarily prevent further escalation, but it might postpone it. The world should work hard to make sure that the shaky truce does not founder, leading to a broader war.
Western leaders’ recent attempts to assure a diplomatic resolution of the Ukraine crisis may come to no avail. Is it possible to restore the peaceful, European status quo amidst such rapidly growing East-West animosity? Eurasia Outlook asked Carnegie’s experts to share their thoughts.
As terrible as it sounds, Kyiv’s endless dysfunction is the Kremlin’s most powerful ally in the current crisis.
When Russian diplomats talk about Ukraine, they are actually speaking to just one man—Vladimir Putin. Moscow does not see any value in reaching out to the broad policy community in the West. The scary thing is that this behavior is not a consequence of the Ukrainian crisis, but one of its major sources.
Through its actions in Ukraine, Russia wants to consolidate its new strategic perimeter without being drawn into a full-scale war.
It is extremely difficult to predict the prospects for new comprehensive agreements on nuclear threat reduction in the midst of the current international crisis. But crises do not last forever, and there may come a time when all of the facets of the unique Nunn-Lugar program will be deemed useful.
Sending weapons to Ukraine could prolong the country’s agony and distract it from the vital task of reconstruction.
This past weekend’s intensified fighting and shelling in southeastern Ukraine, from Donetsk to Mariupol, escalated the Ukraine crisis to a new level. As more people die, political negotiations and eventual diplomatic compromise look less and less likely. What, under these circumstances, does the future hold for Donbas?
After the weekend shelling of Mariupol and the loss of so many lives, the Ukrainian president may have no political choice but to mount a serious military response.
As unsavory as it sounds, Obama may need to press for a diplomatic solution with Putin.