Carnegie Moscow Center
MH17 may well be a turning point in the Ukraine conflict, but President Putin remains unlikely to back down despite economic pressure from the West. Russians may look back to the summer of 2014 years from now as a game changer.
An independent inquiry into the Malaysia Airlines plane crash over eastern Ukraine and an immediate ceasefire by all sides could be the first step in a process to reverse the trend toward mutual destruction within Ukraine and beyond.
The downing of the Malaysia Airlines MH17 plane over Eastern Ukraine catapults the crisis there onto the global plane. The tragic and sudden loss of so many innocent lives should put a final point to the armed conflict—or it may put the international conflict over Ukraine on a much higher and more dangerous level.
Ukraine is certainly a different country compared to seven months ago. The challenges of implementing the EU Association Agreement that it signed on June 27 are still tremendous, though. Reform, management of expectations, and reality is what is needed now.
The Ukraine crisis is testing the complex relationship between Europe, America, and Russia. Yet the gap between the United States and its European allies, as far as policies toward Russia are concerned, is wide and deep.
Allowing Kiev to restore the country’s territorial integrity is the best way to bring real peace to Ukraine. At the same time, pressuring Kiev to declare a new ceasefire that will give the rebels another break will only prolong the conflict.
Russia has stepped forward in Ukraine to protect its vital interests—which the West saw as aggression by a revisionist power. The ensuing conflict will last long and have an impact far beyond Europe.
The Wales summit will be NATO’s most difficult test in a generation, but in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, NATO is finally treating the issue of enlargement with the seriousness it deserves.
It seems the Kremlin is making a U-turn in its Ukraine policy. Although it appears that Putin has acquired a legitimate partner in Poroshenko with whom he can reach agreements, both must walk a very fine line given their respective domestic political situations. Ultimately, the ball is in Putin’s court.
Russia could use the U.S.-led sanctions to begin its long-delayed re-industrialization and to start building a modern economy.