Carnegie Moscow Center
The situation in Syria has two potential outcomes. There will either be a military victory by the opposition or President Bashar al-Assad will step down. In any case, Assad has lost.
Each of the three previous four-year presidential terms in Russia—two of Vladimir Putin and one Dmitry Medvedev’s—has been marked by a different policy toward the West, and the new Putin’s six-year period opening in 2012 is likely to follow that pattern.
The result of the first round of Egypt’s presidential election seems poised to be the prelude to a direct confrontation between the old regime and the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Islamists’ defeat in Algeria’s recent parliamentary elections is a product of the pragmatism of the ruling Algerian elite and shows that the regime is sensitive to society’s demands. The results are likely an exception to the trend of rising Islamist influence in the Arab world.
Tajikistan is among the most problematic countries in Central Asia. The country faces a number of challenges, including an economic crisis, regionalism, domestic political confrontation, and radical Islam.
A slimmed down NATO could do a better job of harmonizing transatlantic positions in crisis situations, be the hub of multinational, high-end military operations, and develop expertise and capabilities to deal with new threats such as cyber attacks.
While developing its Asian strategy, Russia will certainly give a lot of attention to cooperation with China, but it will not ignore its interests and opportunities in other countries in the region.
Independent Kyrgyzstan is unique in its recent political history. Over the last two years this country has functioned under a non-authoritarian system and has started moving in a different direction from its Central Asian neighbors.
UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan is most likely looking to persuade Syria’s Bashar al-Assad to leave power and prevent a collapse of the Syrian state and civil war.
Although Russia seeks to remain the critical broker between Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian opposition, its stance on Syria is beginning to shift as the prospects for Assad's long-term rule diminish.