Carnegie Moscow Center
As terrible as it sounds, Kyiv’s endless dysfunction is the Kremlin’s most powerful ally in the current crisis.
For the Russian economic and political system, as well as for the country’s foreign relations, the current economic crisis is an existential one. Russia will exit from it in a very different form from what it is today.
The criminal charges against former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili guarantee more recriminations about the recent past rather than discussion of the country’s future.
Russian Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky’s primary motive is to curry favor with Vladimir Putin. As Putin has shifted gears to a more conservative, anti-Western, and isolationist outlook, scores of his aggressive loyalists have followed the new trend.
During the horrific events in Odessa, local police stood idly by as violence around them escalated. Police reform in Ukraine is crucially important, but nobody knows how to create honest and professional law enforcement in a thoroughly corrupt state.
The Kremlin’s intervention in Crimea and destabilization of Ukraine exemplifies the Putin Doctrine, part of which is to find ways to reproduce the traditional Russian state.
The Sochi Olympics turned out to be a trap for Vladimir Putin. Instead of being a symbol of his glorious leadership, Sochi is becoming a symbol of corruption and instability.
The Sochi Olympics are more politicized than any other Games in recent history. A number of world leaders have announced that they would not attend the Games. However, the Kremlin uses foreign criticism as proof of the West's perennial desire to hold Russia back, and keep it weak.
The Russian system of autocratic rule has been exhausted. Still many factors help delay the deterioration of the crisis. So Russia is waiting for its Godot, that is for someone to come, either from up on top or down below, to solve all problems for it.
Russia’s recent amnesties reveal the strength of Putin’s position in the country. The release of several high-profile prisoners disarms criticism from the opposition and abroad.