Carnegie Moscow Center
While NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan could have dangerous implications for the region, some measure of instability might benefit Russia, which could use it as evidence of the importance of Russia’s military and political presence in the Central Asia.
Russia may face a danger of becoming a “super Finland,” neutralized and marginalized between the NATO and China. To avoid this, Russia can strengthen its ties with the East-Asian countries.
The intensification of the Sino-Japanese standoff in the East China Sea calls for better communication between the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and the Pentagon.
The situation in Asia-Pacific will not allow an easy establishment of a solid international security arrangement.
As Russia and Japan are carefully embarking on a fresh attempt to fully normalize their relations, closer and more regular contacts in the foreign and security field, including military exercises, may be useful as confidence-building.
“National identity” and “nationalism”—there is nothing permanent about them. They vary, depending upon who speaks about them, and they change as time goes by. Those who resort to ultra-nationalism now in Russia had better hurry, because the nation states are losing efficacy, and values transform as economy and society change.
The simple axiom is: as far as you have a sufficient economic growth, you can be generous to the immigrants, but if the economy goes wrong, you should limit the inflow of foreign workers. The Russian economy is now ill, with a growth rate at slightly above one percent. And the more frustrated the Russians become, the more acute the ethnic problem becomes.
The Chinese-Russian energy alliance is a product of growing bilateral relations, but it also reflects developments in the global energy market and in non-energy geopolitics.
After the U.S. troops withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban will most likely regain the power under the auspices of Pakistan and possibly of another neighbor—China.
As a Euro-Pacific nation, Russia is in a good position to connect directly with all important economic, technological, political, military, and cultural players in the world—and keep the right balance among them in its foreign policy.