Carnegie Moscow Center
North Korea plans to use long-range missile technology to launch a satellite later this month despite international condemnation. There are also troubling signs that the isolated country is preparing for a third nuclear test.
With anxieties over the nuclear activities of North Korea and Iran looming large, heads of state from 53 countries convened in Seoul this week to reaffirm and intensify their commitment to prevent nuclear materials from getting into the hands of terrorists.
The cumulative impact of the nuclear developments that occurred in 2012, from the disaster in Fukushima to Iran's continuing nuclear program, will make the world's nuclear future more uncertain.
After a year that included the Arab Awakening, the euro crisis, Japan’s nuclear catastrophe, the killing of Osama bin Laden, and the unanticipated reaction to Russia’s recent parliamentary elections, there are many unanswered questions left for 2012.
The death of North Korean dictator Kim Jung Il increases the likelihood that the stress on the multiple fault lines in Korean society will reach the point of breaking. Secret talks with China to plan for contingencies may be needed now more than ever.
Although movement is being made toward the resumption of six-party talks with North Korea, persistent disagreements will likely prevent any meaningful progress toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Confronting the global challenges in 2011, from the ongoing war in Afghanistan and a rising China to continuing international economic turmoil, will require an understanding how much has changed and the extent to which the center of gravity in global power has shifted.
Moscow's more active policy stance on North Korea serves Russia's strategic, political, and economic interests and could potentially have a positive impact on the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
Moscow has condemned North Korea’s shelling of the island in the Yellow Sea and expressed concern over Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions. When Russians look into the future, they see a reunified Korea under the leadership of the South, and this is reflected in their foreign policy.
While the ongoing handover of power from Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang is a potentially dangerous process, it also provides new opportunities for the international community to nudge the North Korean regime in a more open and liberal direction.