Carnegie Moscow Center
The 25-year-long quest for Russia's integration with the West is off. A new normalcy is setting between Russia and the West resembles the Russo-British Great Game of the 19th century—this time between America and Russia.
Ukraine is the most important strategic issue for Russia, and Putin, who mistrusts the West, worries that NATO enlargement may concern Ukraine.
Russian state and national identity are still based on the search for the enemy. However, the patriotic euphoria that followed Crimea has begun to wear off. As the Kremlin attempts to understand what to do next in Ukraine, it has become clear that Russians are not prepared to pay for it with their lives.
The coup d’état in Abkhazia attracted virtually no media attention in Russia, and even less attention was paid to the parliamentary election in South Ossetia. It seems that after almost six years of Abkhazian and South Ossetian “independence,” these territories stopped being Russia’s headache, only to be replaced by Crimea.
Ukraine needs strong, loyal managers in order to face the long and daunting list of tasks confronting the country. However, to move Ukraine forward the president and his team will need to put aside their own ambitions.
The D-Day anniversary celebrations have marked a new quality of the West’s relations with Russia. Putin is obviously playing from a position of weakness vis-à-vis the joint forces of the West. The first round has shown it has a chance, but more difficult rounds lie ahead.
Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia signed a treaty on the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) on May 29. While Russia mainly hopes to increase its political clout, all three presidents realize how many difficulties they will have to overcome.
Weeks ago, after heavy fighting in the southern city of Mariupol, local leaders brokered an agreement without the participation of Kyiv-based or regional authorities. Kyiv should move toward a new power-sharing deal or face more Mariupol-type solutions.
Barack Obama’s recent remarks at West Point show that he doesn’t understand the rules of the game he’s playing with Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.
Russia’s policy toward Ukraine has nothing to do with Russian expansionism or imperial nostalgia and little with the need to win domestic political support for Putin. The Kremlin’s main strategic goal in Ukraine is to keep this country out of NATO.