Carnegie Moscow Center
The intensity of Moscow’s current contact with Tehran is unprecedented in Russia’s post-Soviet history. Yet despite the potential for improvement, there are serious obstacles that may hamper or even halt cooperation.
The Obama administration must realize that no “foreign policy” issue will matter as much to global economic, political, and ultimately security conditions in the coming year as whether the United States can demonstrate that it is able to deal with its economic crisis.
The concept of nuclear disarmament as an essential condition for nuclear nonproliferation is again entering the realm of practical politics, but the movement toward nuclear disarmament is extremely difficult and fraught with great dangers.
While NATO can extend the status quo in the short term, it cannot postpone resolving its defense and deterrence dilemmas without undermining Alliance confidence and cohesion.
As a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a nuclear power, Russia has substantial leverage in the post-Soviet space and is the EU's most important neighbor. However, in the coming decades Russia will face serious internal and international challenges.
While Turkey’s vote against additional UN Security Council sanctions on Iran was viewed by some as a sign that Turkey is drifting away from the West, in reality the relationship is much more complicated.
Although Iran and Russia have substantial economic and military ties, Moscow is increasingly wary of Tehran’s growing nuclear ambitions, which have the potential to threaten Russia.
President Obama should assess whether any other leaders of major countries are seriously prepared to pursue a nuclear-weapon-free world. If some are, he should invite them to join him in detailing a ten-year action plan to minimize the dangers posed by fissile materials and maximize the potential of peaceful nuclear energy.
The tense relations between the Muslim world and the rest of the world remain one of the biggest problems in global politics today. Moving forward, both sides must work together to recognize the inevitability of conflict and seek avenues for peaceful mitigation.
By the beginning of the twenty-first century, Russia had recovered from its domestic crisis, and so had its global ambitions. While Moscow’s principal interests still lie mostly toward the West, the Middle East is back on Moscow’s radar screen and Russia’s withdrawal from the region has been reversed.