Chungmin Tsai of National Chengchi University, Chin-fu Hung of National Cheng Kung University, and Center for Strategic & International Studies’ Christopher K. Johnston discussed the implications of the new leadership on China’s domestic politics. Yu-ming Shaw moderated.

  • Continuity: Despite the fervor of media coverage, both domestically and internationally, the panelists broadly suggested that observers not expect any drastic changes in policy orientation. Tsai noted that the new group of leaders is comprised of mostly conservatives chosen from within the Jiang Zemin faction. Hung added that the reduction of the number of members in the Standing Committee from nine to seven highlights the Party’s need for ever-greater consensus and stability. Thus, the leadership is unlikely to open up significantly and enact far-reaching reforms, they concluded.

  • Vested Interests: Johnston added that while the new leadership is not hyper-conservative and that the new sense of unity may suggest that something may actually be done, this is not to suggest that the changes will be easily enacted given the diverse vested interests in China.

  • Hollow Remarks: All the panelists noted that Xi’s position is somewhat constrained, given the general Jiang Zemin faction within the Standing Committee and Xi’s background as a princeling. The implication is that there are unlikely to be any new ideas or values from Xi and the new leadership, they concluded. Hung and Tsai both acknowledged that Beijing has made many promises, but such promises are hollow remarks at best, they warned. Tsai further noted that Xi did not appeal to any previous socialist theories, but acknowledged the many problems that are facing China moving forward.

  • Rampant Corruption: A wide wealth gap, extreme social cleavages, and nostalgia for a Maoist revolution are some of the problems weighing on the Chinese Communist Party, Tsai pointed out. Hung agreed, noting that the leadership recognizes the need to address socioeconomic problems, but this will come at the cost of not addressing issues related to politics, transparency, and the environment. Lastly, Johnston stated that while corruption is an important issue for the Party, he sees only possible incremental reforms going forward.