Shaocheng Tang and Arthur Ding of the National Chengchi University and Alan Romberg of the Stimson Center discussed the present condition of and future opportunities for China’s Taiwan policy. Bonnie Glaser of the Center for Strategic & International Studies moderated.

  • Political Stability: Tang predicted that the cross-strait relationship will remain stable and peaceful as long as the ruling Kuo Min Tang party remains in power in Taiwan. Tang added that the global economic slowdown has made closer cross-strait economic cooperation possible, and said that Beijing is also more willing to partner with Taiwan on sovereignty disputes in the East China Sea. Finally, he said that Chinese statements have suggested that leaders in Beijing might be willing to seek a resolution of the cross-strait political arrangement before completing reunification.

  • Seeking Status Quo: Ding said that following KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-Jeou’s reelection, the cross-strait relationship should remain quiet and stable for the next four years, since Ma’s weak domestic position and deep divisions in Taiwanese society will make him reluctant to alter the status quo. He added, however, that some factions in China that believe that Taiwan’s goal is permanent “peaceful separation” could pressure leaders in Beijing to advance negotiations on Taiwan’s status. Taiwan has also criticized China for making unilateral moves, as in the recent controversial publication of Chinese passports with maps that included disputed territories, Ding said.

  • Policy of Patience: President Ma’s reelection is seen in Beijing as a vindication of a policy of patience, Romberg said. However, new economic and trade agreements show that China does not support stasis and will continue to push for its ultimate goal of peaceful reunification. Under Xi Jinping, China’s leaders will likely undertake comprehensive short-term steps to build trust between the two sides, attempt to lock in achievements while Ma is in office, and continue to put pressure on the opposition Taiwanese party, the Democratic Progressive Party.

  • Building Trust: Romberg echoed Ding’s conclusion that while the mainland remains confident about the ultimate success of reunification, the main question is the pace of unification. While the Chinese government understands that pushing too hard for reunification could be counterproductive, some non-governmental groups are unsatisfied with the progress of cross-strait relations. Romberg concluded that the Chinese government should advance trust-building measures and attempt to win the “hearts and minds” of Taiwanese citizens by avoiding negative publicity like the passport controversy and extending more opportunities for Taiwan to participate in the international sphere.