Carnegie Moscow Center
Russia’s Eurasian Union project aims at integrating much of ex-Soviet Eurasia into an economic, political, and security unit. Before that can happen, however, Russia needs to better manage what it already has.
The Sochi Olympics expose the rift between Moscow and the West. At the same time, they highlight Russia’s pivot to Asia and Eurasia.
The absence of several Western leaders and the presence of Asian luminaries at the opening ceremony of the Sochi Olympics highlights the rebalancing of Moscow’s foreign policy toward Asia-Pacific.
It has been clear from the beginning that the Sochi Olympics would be a likely target for the terrorists. The contest between the terrorists and the forces of the Russian state is one contest that Russia absolutely must win.
Dealing with Ukraine is a test for Russia, as well as for Europe and the United States. Moscow and the Western capitals need to stay out of Ukraine as much as possible, allowing the Ukrainian people to define the country’s national identity.
As the Kremlin confronts a weakening of the props that have enabled it to maintain power, Putin has turned to imperialism as a support for Russian authoritarianism.
Russia’s recent amnesties reveal the strength of Putin’s position in the country. The release of several high-profile prisoners disarms criticism from the opposition and abroad.
The West must brace itself for the possibility that the oligarchic system itself, with its deep roots in Russian political culture, will outlive the regime of President Vladimir V. Putin.
Victor Yanukovych has presented his nation as a gift to Vladimir Putin, but the Ukrainian people have gathered in Kiev’s Independence Square to resist this move. Violence is still possible, and more is at stake than just the political future of one country.
No agreement prohibits deploying of Iskander missiles along Russia western border, but it makes the military situation tense. It appears that Russia chose the path of escalation in relations with NATO.
Viktor Yanukovych is not ready to step back from the struggle for monopolistic power. His game with the West has only one purpose for him—to trade less humiliating conditions for surrender to the Kremlin.
Integrating Ukraine would have been a terrible deal for Russia. On the other hand, if the EU were to help Ukraine become more modern, Russia would be a net beneficiary.
If Europe decides to venture into Ukraine, then it should seriously invest in Ukraine, economically, financially, and politically. As for Russia, it would be better off to continue its policy of non-interference that it is officially maintaining now.
Ukraine has no choice but to make a deal with the EU, but the Europeans will need a long-term strategy to manage relations with Kiev.
While NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan could have dangerous implications for the region, some measure of instability might benefit Russia, which could use it as evidence of the importance of Russia’s military and political presence in the Central Asia.
While Georgia is a much better place than it was ten years ago, in large part due to Saakashvili, too much during his rule was focused more on the surface than on the reality.
Protests in Istanbul and Kiev have similar root causes and similar effects. The demonstrations have shown that citizens can and do take charge in their demand for freedom.
The presence of Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland in Kyiv raises important questions about the U.S. role in the crisis in Ukraine.
As Georgia enters a key period in its modern history, the previous larger-than-life leaders are leaving office and two relatively inexperienced politicians are taking the reins.
Angela Merkel has taken a first step toward a geopolitical competition with Russia over Eastern Europe, effectively ending years of cozy bilateral relations with Moscow.