Carnegie Moscow Center
The Central and East European states integrated into liberal Europe because their ruling elites were able to reach a consensus, and because the European Union readily accepted them. By contrast, Russia has reverted to personalized power.
To the dismay of Russian reformers, a consensus seems to be growing among Western policymakers and intellectuals that Russia is not ready for liberalism and that there are even certain advantages to dealing with the illiberal political order built by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
President Medvedev’s modernization program seems more like another attempt to freshen up Russia’s democratic façade while maintaining the status quo, which could potentially worsen the country’s stagnation and perhaps make it irreversible.
President Obama’s visit to Moscow on July 6-8 is likely to have more influence on world politics than most regular state visits. The tone for U.S. policy towards Russia will be set depending on who he meets with and the rhetoric he uses during this trip.
If the Obama administration believes U.S. relations with Russia's authoritarian regime can be reduced to the false dichotomy of isolation or cooperation, its efforts to improve relations with Moscow will lead to more mutual disappointment.
Russia’s actions in the Russia-Georgia conflict proved that for the Kremlin, foreign policy is the crucial means of carrying out its domestic agenda. For the political elite, this agenda maintains the status quo. However, such a policy is unlikely to stand. Should Russia be unable to start to reform it risks collapse and repeating the end of the Soviet Union.
The Russia-Georgia conflict has illustrated Russia’s new “containment policy” that is targeted towards the West. However, there is some evidence that the Russian elite may also be seeking some reconciliation. The real test of this notion will come if Ukraine insists on joining NATO, and the question of what to do with Crimea will have to be answered.
Lilia Shevtsova argues in a Daily Telegraph opinion editorial that Putin will remain the architect of foreign and security policy while Medvedev is to concentrate on economic and social issues. She writes: “In the Putin-Medvedev tango, Prime Minister Putin is going to be the lead dancer. President Medvedev is left with a somewhat humiliating role.”
The Russian political elite has long dreamed of finding a national idea capable of rallying the people. Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev tried to consolidate the country with his idea of socialism "with a human face." Former President Boris Yeltsin roused the people around anti-communism. Putin's motto is: "Russia is back!"
On May 24, 2007, Carnegie senior associate Lilia Shevstova testified before the United States Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (Helsinki Commission) about the current state of democracy and society in Russia.