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21.10.2020
A Farewell to Trump? Russia’s Elite Braces for U.S. Elections

A Farewell to Trump? Russia’s Elite Braces for U.S. Elections

Trump’s election made Russia a hostage of the battle raging in U.S. domestic politics. This time around, Biden’s victory wouldn’t be the worst thing for Russia.
16.10.2020
New Russia Sanctions Are a Call to Action for Kremlin Doves

New Russia Sanctions Are a Call to Action for Kremlin Doves

The latest EU sanctions against Russia send a clear signal: it’s not enough for individuals to have liberal ideas and reformist intentions; those ideas and intentions must be noticeable in the actions of the Russian state.
15.10.2020
Tipping Point in the Karabakh Crisis: What Next?

Tipping Point in the Karabakh Crisis: What Next?

With no end in sight to the renewed fighting in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, this episode of the Carnegie Moscow Center English-language podcast focuses on the roles of Russia and Turkey in the conflict.
15.10.2020
The Secret of the Tajik President’s Staying Power

The Secret of the Tajik President’s Staying Power

There’s no point in expecting anything like the Belarusian protests—not to mention the revolution in Kyrgyzstan—in Tajikistan. In the decades he has been at the helm, President Rahmon has concentrated all the power in the country in his own hands.
9.10.2020
Why Russia Is Biding Its Time on Nagorno-Karabakh

Why Russia Is Biding Its Time on Nagorno-Karabakh

Russia may have reasons to help its ally Armenia, but it has no reason at all to punish Azerbaijan, which has been an example of model behavior among the former Soviet states, as far as Russia is concerned.
8.10.2020
The Scramble for Power in Kyrgyzstan

The Scramble for Power in Kyrgyzstan

The situation in Kyrgyzstan is in some ways similar to the last two revolutions. At the heart of it is not the revolt of a liberal opposition against a corrupt regime, but a brutal fight for power between regional and tribal groups disguised as political parties. The difference this time is the reluctance of world and regional powers to get involved.
6.10.2020
Behind the Hype: Russia’s Stance on North Korea

Behind the Hype: Russia’s Stance on North Korea

Despite occasional flurries of plans and activity, there is little chance of radical change in Russian-North Korean relations, and the bilateral problems are not the result of sanctions.
5.10.2020
The Kremlin Takes On a Resurrected Navalny

The Kremlin Takes On a Resurrected Navalny

Putin’s spokesman’s vitriolic attack on opposition politician Alexei Navalny—calling him a CIA puppet and accusing him of insulting the president—is a continuation of attempts to marginalize Navalny amid his post-poisoning prominence.
1.10.2020
Podcast: What Does the Future Hold for Belarus?

Podcast: What Does the Future Hold for Belarus?

Nearly two months after Belarus’s contested presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko continues to cling to power. This episode of the Carnegie Moscow Center English-language podcast examines how the situation there may unfold.
1.10.2020
Reformed or Just Retouched? Uzbekistan’s New Regime

Reformed or Just Retouched? Uzbekistan’s New Regime

President Mirziyoyev has already solved the issues for which his predecessor Karimov was condemned. Now he must tackle the problems that have arisen on his own watch. With every year, it will be harder and harder to pass off symbolic concessions as genuine reforms.
29.09.2020
Europe’s Longest-Running Conflict Can’t Be Ignored

Europe’s Longest-Running Conflict Can’t Be Ignored

The Europeans and Americans may groan about this faraway conflict in the hills of the Caucasus, but they will ultimately have to engage with it more seriously—and in partnership with Russia, whatever their differences on other issues.
29.09.2020
Revenge Voting: Ukraine Prepares to Go to the Polls

Revenge Voting: Ukraine Prepares to Go to the Polls

For Zelensky’s team, used to winning landslide victories, the outcome of the upcoming local elections will be dispiriting and will fan the flames of internal strife.
28.09.2020
Nagorno-Karabakh: A Flare-Up, or All-Out War?

Nagorno-Karabakh: A Flare-Up, or All-Out War?

The most likely scenario amid renewed clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a battle for small and not particularly important pockets of land, allowing for the symbolic declaration of a victory. But raising the bar in a conflict makes it very difficult to stop as planned.
25.09.2020
Advantageous Ambiguity: Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal

Advantageous Ambiguity: Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal

Israel’s “anonymous” nuclear arsenal will remain the most important component of the military balance in the Middle East for the foreseeable future, and a significant driver of discord between Tel Aviv and other states in the region, complicating prospects for strengthening the non-proliferation regime in the Middle East
23.09.2020
What Russia Doesn’t Get About Germany

What Russia Doesn’t Get About Germany

Moscow has repeatedly rejected any responsibility for its most contentious actions. As a result, Berlin’s trust and willingness to invest in the relationship with Russia has been wearing down for years.
16.09.2020
Can Moscow Manage a Power Transition in Belarus?

Can Moscow Manage a Power Transition in Belarus?

From an overripe apple that looked sure to drop into Moscow’s lap all on its own, the Belarusian regime is increasingly coming to resemble a toxic asset that’s as difficult to engage with as it is to get rid of.
16.09.2020
Russian-German Relations: Back to the Future

Russian-German Relations: Back to the Future

Berlin is ending the era launched by Gorbachev of a trusting and friendly relationship with Moscow. Russia, for its part, no longer expects anything from Germany, and therefore does not feel obliged to take into account its opinion or interests.
8.09.2020
Where Navalny’s Poisoning Is Taking Russia, at Home and Abroad

Where Navalny’s Poisoning Is Taking Russia, at Home and Abroad

Far from a purely internal or external affair, Alexei Navalny’s poisoning has shaken Russia’s domestic politics as well as its foreign relations. Although it is closer to its beginning than its end, the affair sheds light on the degradation of authoritarianism in Russia, the dynamic between Moscow and an embattled Alexander Lukashenko, and the difficult relations between Russia and the West, especially Germany.
7.09.2020
In Belarus, China Is Neither at Odds With Russia nor Wedded to Lukashenko

In Belarus, China Is Neither at Odds With Russia nor Wedded to Lukashenko

Courted by Alexander Lukashenko since the 2000s, China has gradually expanded its presence, economic and otherwise, in Belarus. However, its strengthening position there has not come at Russia’s expense, and, as unrest spreads following last month’s presidential election, there is little reason to expect China to step in to rescue the embattled president.
1.09.2020
Domestic Geopolitics: Belarusian Protests and Russia’s Power Transition

Domestic Geopolitics: Belarusian Protests and Russia’s Power Transition

Any internal political activity is becoming conclusively geopoliticized. Elections in Belarus or Russia, for example, are not an expression of feedback between the public and the government, but an act of defensive foreign policy.
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