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13.02.2020
Don’t Expect an Economic Miracle in Putin’s Russia

Don’t Expect an Economic Miracle in Putin’s Russia

The main task of Putin’s economic policy is to collect as much in taxes as possible. This is why the man who successfully transformed the Federal Tax Service is now head of the government.
12.02.2020
Last Man Standing: How Avakov Survived in Ukraine

Last Man Standing: How Avakov Survived in Ukraine

Arsen Avakov has survived Ukraine’s change of regime. President Zelensky needs him because of his links to the dark side of the Ukrainian deep state, against which the president’s young reformers are often powerless. The omnipotent minister is prepared to put aside his personal ambition to become the regime’s informal mainstay.
11.02.2020
Oatmeal and Water: The Thinning Belarus-Russia Relationship

Oatmeal and Water: The Thinning Belarus-Russia Relationship

A row over energy prices is a sign that Belarus and Russia are set to have a cooler and more pragmatic relationship. Over the next few years, Minsk is likely to build a more balanced relationship with the West and Moscow, like that of Armenia or Kazakhstan.
11.02.2020
Unconsolidated: The Five Russian Elites Shaping Putin’s Transition

Unconsolidated: The Five Russian Elites Shaping Putin’s Transition

President Putin has embarked on a renewal of Russia’s ruling regime to make sure it weathers the political transition of 2024 and to preserve his personal power-base. The elite can be divided into five distinct groups, two of which, the “protectors” and “technocrats” may end up in a fierce ideological fight.
6.02.2020
An Alternate European Path: How Brexit Will Benefit a Democratic Russia

An Alternate European Path: How Brexit Will Benefit a Democratic Russia

While broadly perceived as a blow to the EU and its values, Brexit will actually benefit a future democratic Russia. Britain’s exit will create a new model of Europeanness, in which a country can strive to achieve European standards without EU membership. That is a niche Russia can fill.
5.02.2020
Are Russians Ready for Lasting Change?

Are Russians Ready for Lasting Change?

The Russian public’s appetite for change has increased considerably in the past two years, according to a new poll by the Carnegie Moscow Center and the Levada Center. What kind of change do people want, and what are they prepared to do about it?
4.02.2020
A Storm in January: Implications of the Recent U.S.-Iran Crisis for the Global Order

A Storm in January: Implications of the Recent U.S.-Iran Crisis for the Global Order

The U.S.-Iran crisis of January 2020 did not lead to a major war in the Middle East, but it did reveal a number of new trends reshaping the world order.
3.02.2020
Why Brexit Won’t Affect EU-Russia Relations

Why Brexit Won’t Affect EU-Russia Relations

Many Brits continue to believe that Russia interfered in the Brexit referendum campaign by financing and promoting the Leave campaign. In addition, the legacy of the poisoning of the Skripals will impact bilateral relations for years to come, with no mutually acceptable resolution in sight.
31.01.2020
Podcast: What's It Like to Be a Foreign Correspondent in Russia?

Podcast: What's It Like to Be a Foreign Correspondent in Russia?

Alex Gabuev, Robyn Dixon and Max Seddon discuss the work of the foreign media in Moscow.
30.01.2020
Why Aren’t Russians Protesting Putin’s Reforms?

Why Aren’t Russians Protesting Putin’s Reforms?

Most Russians are dumbfounded and intrigued, but not necessarily angry at Putin’s strategy of commencing constitutional change before anyone expected it. This may only change if people’s current expectations are confounded, and Putin doesn’t step down as president after all.
28.01.2020
Oil Spoils the Russia-Belarus Romance

Oil Spoils the Russia-Belarus Romance

Belarus’s resolution to become less dependent on Russian oil has nothing to do with its economy. Minsk is making a political statement with the aim of depriving Moscow of one of its main bargaining chips in their relationship.
23.01.2020
Russia’s New Government Is Its Least Political Yet

Russia’s New Government Is Its Least Political Yet

Russia’s new cabinet ministers are young, efficient, nonconfrontational, adaptable, and don’t poke their noses into politics. They live in the digital world that is so difficult for the country’s aging leadership to understand. With time, the victim of this technocratic dominance may be that very same leadership.
22.01.2020
Cracks Emerge in Ukraine’s Ruling Party

Cracks Emerge in Ukraine’s Ruling Party

Faced with a fluctuating approval rating, President Zelensky is attempting to instill order in his party’s ranks. The voting machine that he built from his parliamentary majority is beginning to malfunction as deputies refuse to be mere cogs in that machine.
21.01.2020
Enter Mishustin: The New Russian Prime Minister’s Agenda

Enter Mishustin: The New Russian Prime Minister’s Agenda

Mikhail Mishustin is replacing Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister of Russia after nearly a decade as director of the Federal Tax Service (FNS). Russians can expect a shift in emphasis from taxation to the allocation of funds as Mishustin draws on his management skills to make government spending as orderly and transparent as taxation became under his leadership.
20.01.2020
Russia Prepares for New Tandemocracy

Russia Prepares for New Tandemocracy

Putin’s proposed amendments to various roles amount to something resembling an insurance policy, which suggests that the president has already decided who his successor will be, though he may not name that person for another three years.
17.01.2020
Did Putin Just Appoint Himself President for Life?

Did Putin Just Appoint Himself President for Life?

President Putin’s unexpected proposals this week to change the Russian constitution prompted the instant resignation of the Russian government. What’s he trying to achieve, and will he succeed?
16.01.2020
Planning for a (Not-So) Post-Putin Russia

Planning for a (Not-So) Post-Putin Russia

Of the constitutional reforms put forward by Putin, what will really change a lot is the proposal to give the Russian constitution—including repressive Russian legislation—priority over international law. This violation of the usual hierarchy is nothing short of a legal revolution.
13.01.2020
Can Russia and Turkey Bring Peace to Libya?

Can Russia and Turkey Bring Peace to Libya?

Having declared themselves mediators in the civil war in Libya, Russia and Turkey will try to replicate the model of cooperation and mutual accommodation they developed in Syria.
7.01.2020
The Iran Crisis Can Be a Boost for Russia

The Iran Crisis Can Be a Boost for Russia

If Syria becomes the setting for a clash between Washington and Tehran, this could be a major problem for Moscow. Until now—and not without Soleimani’s help—Moscow had always managed to find a compromise with the pro-Iran forces in Syria. It’s not clear how the situation will develop now.
30.12.2019
Podcast: Is Russia Late to the Chinese Gas Market Party?

Podcast: Is Russia Late to the Chinese Gas Market Party?

Alexander Gabuev discusses Gazprom's Power of Siberia project with energy analyst Sergei Kapitonov.
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