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13.03.2020
Keeping His Options Open: Why Putin Decided to Stay On

Keeping His Options Open: Why Putin Decided to Stay On

Putin, a man torn by conflicting impulses, has opted for stability in moving to stay on as president after 2024. In doing so, he surprised the elite and even some in the presidential administration, deceiving those around him—though not the public—with his talk of changes in leadership and overhauling Russia’s political system. His real intentions are impossible to know, but his priority is clear: keeping his options open.
13.03.2020
Russia’s Far East Seeks Partners Beyond China

Russia’s Far East Seeks Partners Beyond China

Chinese investment in Russia’s Far East is precisely what it should be given the current level of the region’s development. Most of the Far East is more focused on obtaining subsidies from Moscow than foreign investment.
11.03.2020
Putin’s Choice: What do Russia’s Latest Constitutional Maneuvers Mean?

Putin’s Choice: What do Russia’s Latest Constitutional Maneuvers Mean?

A new Russian state is taking shape that is unashamedly authoritarian in design. If Russia ever wants to return to the European model, it will have to dismantle the entire political legacy that this regime has built.
6.03.2020
Ukraine’s Unromantic Reshuffle

Ukraine’s Unromantic Reshuffle

Having dismissed his young government, President Zelensky risks joining the ranks of Ukraine’s failed reformers. The reshuffle is being seen as a victory for business as usual and oligarchic interests.
5.03.2020
How Coronavirus Beat Big Brother in China

How Coronavirus Beat Big Brother in China

The outbreak of coronavirus in China has exposed the weak spots of the country’s Big Brother system. It turns out that China’s extensive network of facial recognition cameras is useless in the face of a simple surgical mask.
3.03.2020
Podcast: Coronavirus and the Battlefields of the U.S.-China Trade War

Podcast: Coronavirus and the Battlefields of the U.S.-China Trade War

Carnegie’s Alex Gabuev and The Financial Times’ Asia editor Jamil Anderlini discuss coronavirus, the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, and the geopolitical dynamics in Asia-Pacific.
17.02.2020
German Election Scandal Reflects Europe’s Changing Landscape

German Election Scandal Reflects Europe’s Changing Landscape

There is little reason to expect that the far-right Alternative for Germany party will become a leading political force. Yet the political landscape will inevitably take on a different form, as Merkel-era centrism gives way to growing ideological polarization.
13.02.2020
Don’t Expect an Economic Miracle in Putin’s Russia

Don’t Expect an Economic Miracle in Putin’s Russia

The main task of Putin’s economic policy is to collect as much in taxes as possible. This is why the man who successfully transformed the Federal Tax Service is now head of the government.
12.02.2020
Last Man Standing: How Avakov Survived in Ukraine

Last Man Standing: How Avakov Survived in Ukraine

Arsen Avakov has survived Ukraine’s change of regime. President Zelensky needs him because of his links to the dark side of the Ukrainian deep state, against which the president’s young reformers are often powerless. The omnipotent minister is prepared to put aside his personal ambition to become the regime’s informal mainstay.
11.02.2020
Oatmeal and Water: The Thinning Belarus-Russia Relationship

Oatmeal and Water: The Thinning Belarus-Russia Relationship

A row over energy prices is a sign that Belarus and Russia are set to have a cooler and more pragmatic relationship. Over the next few years, Minsk is likely to build a more balanced relationship with the West and Moscow, like that of Armenia or Kazakhstan.
11.02.2020
Unconsolidated: The Five Russian Elites Shaping Putin’s Transition

Unconsolidated: The Five Russian Elites Shaping Putin’s Transition

President Putin has embarked on a renewal of Russia’s ruling regime to make sure it weathers the political transition of 2024 and to preserve his personal power-base. The elite can be divided into five distinct groups, two of which, the “protectors” and “technocrats” may end up in a fierce ideological fight.
6.02.2020
An Alternate European Path: How Brexit Will Benefit a Democratic Russia

An Alternate European Path: How Brexit Will Benefit a Democratic Russia

While broadly perceived as a blow to the EU and its values, Brexit will actually benefit a future democratic Russia. Britain’s exit will create a new model of Europeanness, in which a country can strive to achieve European standards without EU membership. That is a niche Russia can fill.
5.02.2020
Are Russians Ready for Lasting Change?

Are Russians Ready for Lasting Change?

The Russian public’s appetite for change has increased considerably in the past two years, according to a new poll by the Carnegie Moscow Center and the Levada Center. What kind of change do people want, and what are they prepared to do about it?
4.02.2020
A Storm in January: Implications of the Recent U.S.-Iran Crisis for the Global Order

A Storm in January: Implications of the Recent U.S.-Iran Crisis for the Global Order

The U.S.-Iran crisis of January 2020 did not lead to a major war in the Middle East, but it did reveal a number of new trends reshaping the world order.
3.02.2020
Why Brexit Won’t Affect EU-Russia Relations

Why Brexit Won’t Affect EU-Russia Relations

Many Brits continue to believe that Russia interfered in the Brexit referendum campaign by financing and promoting the Leave campaign. In addition, the legacy of the poisoning of the Skripals will impact bilateral relations for years to come, with no mutually acceptable resolution in sight.
31.01.2020
Podcast: What's It Like to Be a Foreign Correspondent in Russia?

Podcast: What's It Like to Be a Foreign Correspondent in Russia?

Alex Gabuev, Robyn Dixon and Max Seddon discuss the work of the foreign media in Moscow.
30.01.2020
Why Aren’t Russians Protesting Putin’s Reforms?

Why Aren’t Russians Protesting Putin’s Reforms?

Most Russians are dumbfounded and intrigued, but not necessarily angry at Putin’s strategy of commencing constitutional change before anyone expected it. This may only change if people’s current expectations are confounded, and Putin doesn’t step down as president after all.
28.01.2020
Oil Spoils the Russia-Belarus Romance

Oil Spoils the Russia-Belarus Romance

Belarus’s resolution to become less dependent on Russian oil has nothing to do with its economy. Minsk is making a political statement with the aim of depriving Moscow of one of its main bargaining chips in their relationship.
23.01.2020
Russia’s New Government Is Its Least Political Yet

Russia’s New Government Is Its Least Political Yet

Russia’s new cabinet ministers are young, efficient, nonconfrontational, adaptable, and don’t poke their noses into politics. They live in the digital world that is so difficult for the country’s aging leadership to understand. With time, the victim of this technocratic dominance may be that very same leadership.
22.01.2020
Cracks Emerge in Ukraine’s Ruling Party

Cracks Emerge in Ukraine’s Ruling Party

Faced with a fluctuating approval rating, President Zelensky is attempting to instill order in his party’s ranks. The voting machine that he built from his parliamentary majority is beginning to malfunction as deputies refuse to be mere cogs in that machine.
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