Carnegie Moscow Center
The risk of an inadvertent nuclear war is rising because of the entanglement of non-nuclear weapons with nuclear weapons and their command-and-control capabilities.
Entanglement, driven by the development of new non-nuclear technologies that can threaten nuclear weapons and their associated systems, is giving rise to the risk that a non-nuclear conflict between the great powers might escalate into a global nuclear war.
The attack in St Petersburg should push Moscow to revisit its counterterrorism strategy and be ready to meet the challenge of this evolving threat. Monday’s bombing should make Kremlin understand the need for a comprehensive strategy.
Russia and Iran should talk more about how they interpret each other’s interests, adjust these interpretations and avoid misinterpretations in the future.
If explained in details and promoted by the Russian and Bangladeshi authorities, solutions about water supply, spent nuclear fuel, and security could end some concerns and fears about the Rooppur NPP and help create a friendly environment around this project.
Media reports about a rapprochement between Russia and the Taliban are not even close to reality. Moscow, however, has opened communication channels with the Afghan group, with an eye on protecting its own interests in the country.
Even if Moscow wisely avoids a bid for the mediator role in South Asia, behind the scenes it could facilitate dialogue between India and Pakistan on bilateral issues.
Recent developments in Russia-Pakistan relations seem to create a false impression of solid cooperation, which simultaneously irritates a few third countries. This is why Russia needs to rethink not only its policy towards Islamabad, but the region as a whole.
Speculations about the U.S. policy in South Asia may be right or wrong. But at least one thing is clear. In his policy toward South Asia, Trump will follow his understanding of pragmatic and realistic interests of the United States, and not seek how to please leaders of South Asian countries and beyond, including Russia.
India and Russia need to undertake a fresh and frank appraisal of each other if their strategic partnership is to deepen and endure beyond high-level weapons and energy cooperation.