Carnegie Moscow Center
If the European debt crisis, which is straining the ties that bind the continent together, brings about the end of European integration, the economic, political, and social repercussions will impact the entire world.
With divisions emerging within the Group of 20, the big players at the upcoming G20 meeting in Seoul will need to work together to avert a currency war and reduce trade tensions.
With inflation rising, trade balances falling, and economic growth slowing, the outlook for Russia's economy is bleak. Official plans for strict budget tightening will only add to the troubles.
Growth in emerging economies has slowed from torrid post-crisis rates, but remains high and will likely mitigate—but not fully compensate for—a sharp slowdown in advanced countries.
Moscow’s unwillingness to trust market forces and continued insistence on top-down economic policies undermines any attempt at a true economic partnership with Europe.
Despite the renewed flow of bank credit, investment remains low in Russia. If investment growth fails to materialize soon, the economy may be headed for a long period of stagnation.
In 1998, Russia successfully dealt with a severe fiscal crisis by restructuring its debt. If Greece chooses to do the same, it should take note of three valuable lessons from Russia’s experience.
Twelve years after defaulting on its debt, Russian policy makers are again facing difficult choices regarding public spending. With debt remaining at relatively low levels, however, the government should focus on economic recovery, not deficit reduction.
Though Russia's GDP contracted by less than expected in 2009, exports appear to nearing their maximum level and the banking system is facing a debt crisis, raising important questions about the future of Russia's fiscal policy and economic growth.
Obama is trying to position himself as the ‘president of all Americans,’ to modernize the United States, and to resolve pressing problems such as unemployment, health care, and the budget deficit.