Carnegie Moscow Center
The secretive nature of the gas agreement between Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corp may show that the contract contains something the Russian negotiators could not be proud of in the limelight of Russian public opinion.
The Indian landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party and Narendra Modi may lead to a strengthening of the strategic partnership between India and Russia.
If the Kremlin allies with China too closely, it will not only estrange Russia from most of Asian countries, but also may provoke China’s appetite to gobble the newly-born child of Russia, the Eurasian Union.
It would be better for Russia to reach an agreement with the West on the territorial integrity of Ukraine, coupled with an assurance of its permanent neutrality and a simultaneous accession by Ukraine to the Association Agreement with the EU and to the Russia-led Customs Union.
Strong Japanese-Russian relations are economically beneficial and a strategic counterbalance against China’s influence. But the Ukraine crisis and Japan’s U.S. loyalties could have damaging effects.
The Indian parliamentary election is in full swing. The name of the future prime minister and the party he will represent are not all that important. It is far more important to the voters that the new government be efficient and professional.
Japan makes judgment about Ukraine in the context of her balancing game among the United States, Russia, and China. However, if Moscow sends troops to Eastern Ukraine, the Japanese political class will unanimously support serious measures to stop Russia.
The challenges New Delhi faces inside the country and along its borders do not allow it to fully support the Russian annexation of Crimea, since this would create a precedent that can be used against India’s own territorial integrity. However, India could not denounce Russia either, because it acted similarly four decades ago.
Russia’s annexation of Crimea and possible future incursions into eastern Ukraine could reshape the geopolitical map of Europe and derail cooperation between Moscow and the West for years to come.
Two weeks search for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane was an example of both impressive regional cooperation and discouraging limits of such cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region.