Carnegie Moscow Center
In 2013, Europe was a peaceful place, but elsewhere in Eurasia, things were not as peaceful. This eventful year promises an interesting 2014.
Understanding that the world has found itself in a period of interregnum, or “time without a trajectory,” is the key legacy of 2013.
Edward Snowden revealed a lot not only about the National Security Agency activities, but also about the state of the world.
The growth of the Chinese economy has been remarkable, but it was largely sustained by a phenomenal inflow of foreign capital and forced construction of infrastructure. Now fossilized in state capitalism, China may forfeit a mechanism for autonomous growth.
While NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan could have dangerous implications for the region, some measure of instability might benefit Russia, which could use it as evidence of the importance of Russia’s military and political presence in the Central Asia.
Russia may face a danger of becoming a “super Finland,” neutralized and marginalized between the NATO and China. To avoid this, Russia can strengthen its ties with the East-Asian countries.
The intensification of the Sino-Japanese standoff in the East China Sea calls for better communication between the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and the Pentagon.
The situation in Asia-Pacific will not allow an easy establishment of a solid international security arrangement.
Russia is reacting to the rise of Asia by shifting its attention eastward—from the Ural Mountains to the Amur River. Moscow must learn to act like a Euro-Pacific power.
As Russia and Japan are carefully embarking on a fresh attempt to fully normalize their relations, closer and more regular contacts in the foreign and security field, including military exercises, may be useful as confidence-building.