Carnegie Moscow Center
Russia’s economic, political and strategic environment in the West is fast deteriorating. One obvious way to respond to this is to reach out to Asia and the Pacific.
Moscow has long been unhappy about some of the rules of the game set after the end of the Cold War, such as the West’s dominance, but now it feels strong and confident enough to challenge them.
The Ukrainian events develop rapidly with a great sense of alarm; it not only involves danger of terrorism in Moscow, but also entails a big risk for East Asia. The main question now is who would be ready to take charge of the situation.
The International Olympic Committee has lifted the suspension of the Indian Olympic team. The presence of the Indian athletes in the Olympics is important because Sochi is the place where even rivaling states, such as India and Pakistan, have to fairly and peacefully participate in the tournaments.
The Sochi Olympics expose the rift between Moscow and the West. At the same time, they highlight Russia’s pivot to Asia and Eurasia.
The 50th Munich Security Conference marked the charting of a course toward Berlin’s more robust engagement in the world, including with military means. At the same time, the conference was overshadowed by the unfolding crisis in Ukraine.
The slump of interest in South Asia in the West is a positive development, because it makes clearer which countries are the real partners of Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan. Also, if left to themselves these three countries will get a chance to build their relations without external pressure.
The recent developments in Asia-Pacific indicate a necessity to start serious talks for “stock-taking” of the military forces in the region. Also, Russia’s active involvement in regional security affairs is needed.
There have been many events in Asia in 2013. But some of them stand to impact the most the global policy and security in 2014.
Eurasia Outlook returns in 2014 and in the months ahead it will focus on the issues that are likely to shape the future of Eurasia.