Carnegie Moscow Center
While a global crisis, provoked by the recent developments in Ukraine, has brought the world to the edge, the political and intellectual world has demonstrated how unprepared it is for the new challenges and how difficult it is to grasp the new reality.
The Kremlin’s intervention in Crimea and destabilization of Ukraine exemplifies the Putin Doctrine, part of which is to find ways to reproduce the traditional Russian state.
It seems unlikely that Russian armed forces will move beyond the Crimean peninsula. The softer and more conciliatory tone taken by Putin could be a result of the determination of the United States and Europe to take action against Russia.
The international focus must be on checking Putin’s provocation in Ukraine and preventing him from taking another step—in Kazakhstan or anywhere else—in his reintegration project.
The recent developments in Ukraine have effectively put an end to the interregnum of partnership and cooperation between the West and Russia that generally prevailed in the quarter-century after the Cold War.
The crisis in Crimea is perhaps the most dangerous point in Europe’s history since the end of the cold war. It is likely to alter fundamentally relations between Russia and the West and lead to changes in the global power balance.
Putin may yet find out what many others found out before him, that breaking a country is a lot easier than putting it back together.
If Putin follows through on his threat to invade Ukraine, the damage to Russia’s relations with the West will be deep and lasting.
The crisis in Crimea is the most dangerous moment since the end of the Cold War, with the risk of not only an escalation of tension between Ukraine and Russia, but also between Russia and NATO.
The possibility of a Russian military operation in Ukraine that is not limited to Crimea is real. Russia and the West are on the verge a confrontation far worse than over Georgia in 2008.