Carnegie Moscow Center
Although Russians are closely watching the demonstrations and regime changes taking place across the Middle East and North Africa, it is the situation in Central Asia that is more likely to affect Russia in the long run.
Recently, NATO and the European Union have made significant efforts to engage with Russia as an important partner for both France and the wider EU.
Confronting the global challenges in 2011, from the ongoing war in Afghanistan and a rising China to continuing international economic turmoil, will require an understanding how much has changed and the extent to which the center of gravity in global power has shifted.
While Turkey’s vote against additional UN Security Council sanctions on Iran was viewed by some as a sign that Turkey is drifting away from the West, in reality the relationship is much more complicated.
Although Iran and Russia have substantial economic and military ties, Moscow is increasingly wary of Tehran’s growing nuclear ambitions, which have the potential to threaten Russia.
President Ahmadinejad’s meeting with the leader of Hezbollah is further evidence of Iran’s efforts to gain a foothold in the Middle East as one of the key regional players.
In order to convince Iran to use its eventual nuclear weapons arsenal only for deterrence and regional power politics, the Obama administration must work to empower the moderates in the Iranian leadership.
While no historical analogy is perfect, analysts looking to understand Iran’s character and predict its future trajectory can benefit from comparing the Islamic Republic to the Soviet Union.
The Russian government’s drive to modernize its economy is increasingly reflected in its foreign policy priorities, including its relations with the United States, Europe, and China and its position on Iran's nuclear program.
Sanctions alone are unlikely to persuade Iran to stop enriching uranium, but there are few alternative measures that would increase pressure and change the behavior of the Iranian regime.