Carnegie Moscow Center
The Kremlin wants to legalize the annexation of Crimea to Russia as soon as possible because it is trying to present the world with an accomplished fact while the West is still confused and lacks effective means to stop Russia.
The West’s sanctions will be damaging to Russia and its people. However, standing up to Western pressure is likely to become the main feature of a newborn Russian patriotism and the central element of national consolidation.
Most Crimeans probably do not realize it yet, but without a shot being fired and in the space of just a few days, Crimea has joined the list of European territories that live in the twilight zone of international sovereignty.
From the perspective of Putin and his associates, Ukraine is a red line and the West, in the form of NATO, was crossing it.
Russian troops in Crimea are necessary not simply to protect it from a possible invasion by the Ukrainian army, but rather to incorporate Crimea into Russia’s financial infrastructure as soon as possible.
The Crimea referendum, in which the people of the region have massively voted to join Russia, marks a watershed in Russia’s foreign policy: Russia has stopped walking backward and has made a step forward. As for Ukraine, it will be for the foreseeable future a geopolitical battleground.
A second Cold War is emerging because of the mistakes that were made by both Russia and the West at the end of the first Cold War and during the inter-Cold War period.
The Ukrainian crisis has intensified the Kremlin’s crackdown on the Russian media. Nongovernment media simply no longer belong in today’s Russia.
If Vladimir Putin has a new doctrine of intervention, Moldova is vulnerable. But thus far both Chisinau and Transnistria have been quiet, while the crisis rages next door.
The Kremlin’s intervention in Crimea and destabilization of Ukraine exemplifies the Putin Doctrine, part of which is to find ways to reproduce the traditional Russian state.