Carnegie Moscow Center
Despite the diplomatic victories of Vladimir Putin, the economic stagnation in Russia is a far deeper and long-term factor.
This year’s top three “men of the year” include Pope Francis, Vladimir Putin, and Edward Snowden. But if the “people who made history in 2013” were to be chosen, it should be the actual people—those Ukrainians who have gathered in the Kiev Independence Square.
Putin’s announcement about an impending pardon for Mikhail Khodorkovsky at his year-end press conference in the Kremlin today speaks volumes about the state of Russian domestic politics.
The Russian-Ukrainian economic agreements look like Putin’s victory, but the Kremlin will have to deal with an array of powerful opponents. The battle for Ukraine has entered a new stage.
Not only in Russia where ideologists use the issue of homosexual rights as a dividing line between the East and the West, but in some other post-communist states as well the European agenda on gay and lesbian rights is not shared by the majority of population.
The protests in Ukraine are a warning to all post-Soviet authoritarian states that the same thing may occur at any time in their countries and are likely to serve as a pretext for the authorities in Russia and in Central Asia to tighten their control.
The protesters in Kiev have a real chance of ushering in a more democratic system. If taking sides with them means taking a stance against Russia’s Vladimir Putin, so be it.
Vladimir Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly means that the president has exhausted himself and can no longer find a single thought or idea that would suggest that he is staying in the Kremlin because he still has something to offer Russia.
Viktor Yanukovych is not ready to step back from the struggle for monopolistic power. His game with the West has only one purpose for him—to trade less humiliating conditions for surrender to the Kremlin.
Integrating Ukraine would have been a terrible deal for Russia. On the other hand, if the EU were to help Ukraine become more modern, Russia would be a net beneficiary.