Carnegie Moscow Center
Republican Scott Brown's victory in the United States is an event of both national and international significance. The Democrats have lost the qualified majority needed to pass bills and ratify international agreements without holdups.
The Central and East European states integrated into liberal Europe because their ruling elites were able to reach a consensus, and because the European Union readily accepted them. By contrast, Russia has reverted to personalized power.
To the dismay of Russian reformers, a consensus seems to be growing among Western policymakers and intellectuals that Russia is not ready for liberalism and that there are even certain advantages to dealing with the illiberal political order built by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
President Obama has had some major accomplishments in the past year, but serious challenges still lay ahead: strengthening the nonproliferation regime, climate change, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran, and Afghanistan.
In response to the diverse challenges facing the region, the Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative—an international commission to build the intellectual framework for an inclusive transatlantic security system for the 21st century—has been launched.
While a Nobel Peace Prize seems the occasion to address an international audience, Obama must use this opportunity to speak to his domestic constituency on the three great present challenges to world peace: nuclear proliferation, climate change and the allure of radical Islam.
In his long-awaited address, President Obama presented a series of objectives but no clear strategy. His plan will likely leave Afghanistan looking worse than it does now.
Despite the complexities involved, the new START treaty should be signed by spring 2010. The main stumbling block is that the United States prioritizes a regime of transparency, whereas Russia demands a reduction of strategic weapons.
President Obama’s trip to Asia will signal renewed U.S. commitment to this vitally important region. Perhaps the most important stop will be in China, where Obama will seek to ease lingering strategic distrust and discuss key issues of trade, climate change, and security.
U.S. plans to build a global missile defense system have caused consternation in Moscow, where a potential U.S. first-strike capability is still viewed as the most serious external military threat to Russia.