Carnegie Moscow Center
Two years since fighting broke out between Georgia and Russia, the situation in the separatist territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia remains deadlocked and the current western policy of strong rhetorical support for the Georgian position substitutes easy words for hard diplomatic work.
The international community cannot afford to let the unresolved dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh remain a low priority; a renewal of violence would impact not only Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also Georgia, Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
The Hague ruling on Kosovo's independence indirectly strengthens the position of other self-proclaimed states—from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, to Nagorno-Karabakh and North Cyprus. However, legal rulings do not negate the need to find a political solution.
The North Caucasus remains one of the toughest challenges facing Russia today and the problems that have accumulated there over the past decades require an equally long and serious strategic approach to resolve.
The bloodshed on the ceasefire line should focus minds and be a reminder that a new conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh would be catastrophic for everyone, not just Armenians and Azeris.
While Nagorno-Karabakh engages in the process of building a de facto state, hardening attitudes in Karabakh and Azerbaijan could lead to a war which would affect the entire South Caucasus, including Georgia, Iran, Russia, and Turkey.
The position of EU special representative for the south Caucasus plays an important role in the potential transformation and development of the volatile region.
Although Azerbaijan and Turkey have reached an agreement to supply natural gas to Turkey, the Nabucco pipeline project still faces many challenges.
Armenia suspended the process of normalization with Turkey in April, dealing a blow to an agreement designed to open the closed Armenia–Turkey border after almost a century of hostility between the nations.
Negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are deadlocked, with serious consequences not only for the nations involved in the conflict, but also for the Armenia-Turkey reconciliation process.