Carnegie Moscow Center
Tensions between Georgia and Russia continue to simmer, in the aftermath of the five-day war of August 2008. Without disinterested help from the West, Georgian president Saakashvili’s rhetorical invocation of a Russian threat could all too easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Six months after the signing of protocols intended to normalize relations between Armenia and Turkey and open the closed border between the two countries, the protocols are in danger of collapse.
Rather than addressing the reasons why their initiatives against terrorism have not been effective, the Russian authorities have focused on trying to calm the public with harsh but empty rhetoric.
Terrorist threats in Russia require a long-term, consistent strategy. But Russia's system of heavy-handed and unaccountable governance precludes strategic thinking.
The Kremlin’s control over the media may allow Russia’s elites to avoid the immediate consequences of the recent metro bombings, but if the security problem is not resolved, the current authorities will face growing calls for accountability.
The March bombings in Moscow have shown that efforts by the Kremlin to quiet the North Caucasus have only made rebel leaders more desperate and more willing to resort to terrorism to achieve their goals.
Ending the threat of violence from the rebel groups in the North Caucasus requires long-term social, economic, and political actions, not a security clampdown which will only fuel further hatred and incite more people to join the rebel cause.
In spite of terrorist acts like the Moscow metro bombings, the Russian people continue to show strong support for their leaders, who are credited with having prevented a total economic collapse.
In spite of the recent suicide bombings in the Moscow metro, the government is unlikely to institute any major changes that will significantly enhance Russia’s security, and the next few years may actually see an intensification of terrorist activity in Russia.
Magomedov, the new president of Dagestan, is a compromise figure selected to help calm the region. There is every chance that he could be a success for the Kremlin, with the apparent support of Dagestan’s parliament.