Carnegie Moscow Center
The recent spike in violence in the North Caucasus undermines the Kremlin's claim that its anti-terrorism policies in the region are succeeding.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s consolidation or power, and Moscow’s pre-occupation with Russia’s economic and political crisis will force the Kremlin to reconsider Putin’s policy of appeasing Chechnya.
The economic crisis may have exacerbated many of the vulnerabilities in Russia's economy, but it stopped the deterioration of U.S.-Russian relations, which were the lowest they had been in twenty-five years.
Grave violence plagues the North Caucasus, which should be a key humanitarian concern for Europe. But the economic crisis will largely determine how much will be done to help the region.
As protests against Moscow spread throughout Russia, regional governors loyal to the Kremlin, but lacking proven leadership skills, may be unable to meet the challenge posed by angry citizens.
As John McCain formally accepts his nomination for president, Russian coverage of the event and the campaign in general has been distanced and sometimes condescending. Instead, the Russian media has mainly been focused on the events in Georgia.
Putin may have succeeded Boris Yeltsin, but he decided to adopt the leadership style of Yury Andropov. This style is reflected in Russia’s current dealings with Georgia, which represent a major foreign policy shift for the country. However, these actions will prove to be harmful for Russia and will reignite its own current ethnic separatist movements.
Although U.S.-Russia relations have deteriorated, options for cooperation still exist. Particularly in the area of nuclear nonproliferation, collaboration is essential and may be the best way to ameliorate relations. Russia, the U.S., and Europe should start with negotiating the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), which will provide a starting point for brokering a new consensus.
Unlike what has recently been alleged, the world is not experiencing a new Cold War. Today’s chill in U.S.-Russia relations rests on Russia’s belief that what is good for the West is inherently bad for Russia. Jumping headlong into a confrontation would be a bad idea though for the West. Instead, Western leaders should show that we can gain more from partnership.
The Russia-Georgia conflict is a watershed for a new era in geopolitics. As America scrambles to react to the crisis, Russia will continue to challenge Western influence in the former Soviet space. In turn, both will turn to Europe, and Europe’s ability to defend its own interests will be the most severe test yet for the Union. All the while, China, Iran and others watch with keen interest.