Carnegie Moscow Center
It is not clear how long the uncertainty over Ukraine’s new course will last. But the challenges that the country is facing are more obvious.
Crimea is the most serious potential conflict in postrevolutionary Ukraine. The crisis could lead to a hot war in Ukraine and dramatically increase tensions between Russia and the West—no effort should be spared to avert this scenario.
The collapse of the Yanukovych regime in Ukraine became another posthumous chapter in the breakup of the Soviet Union. It will severely curtail Russia’s leadership ambitions in the post-Soviet space.
As more or less the last international player that can make a pitch to all of Ukraine, the EU will need to re-tool the Eastern Partnership to make a credible offer to all Ukrainian citizens.
The Western media’s focus on Russia has ignored the fact that it was Ukraine’s revolution, made in Ukraine by Ukrainians. But now Ukraine’s domestic politics is full of uncertainty.
The Ukrainian drama is far from over, and the international actors bear responsibility for its length and excruciatingly painful results.
Ukraine’s “February revolution” is sometimes described as a major blow to Russia and to President Vladimir Putin, personally. In fact, it may be a blessing in disguise for both.
Russia has far less influence in Ukraine than is commonly appreciated. Moscow’s best option is to stand back and wait, while quietly favoring decentralization in Ukraine.
The compromise between Yanukovych and the leaders of the opposition is a long-overdue step back from a disaster, but much remains unclear. Ukraine will face a set of grim prospects, the worst of which is that the country is running out of money.
Without clear knowledge of what role radical and paramilitary groups, or Yanukovych loyalists, played in touching off this past week’s violence, all eyes must be on the people with the guns, not the politicians.